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经历了30多年的高速发展,目前中国经济已经步入新常态。从供给因素来看,人口红利减弱、储蓄率下降和全要素生产率降低,会导致潜在增长率下降;从需求因素来看,基础设施投资潜力下降、城镇化速度放缓、出口增速回落,也会带来潜在增长放缓。因此,未来中国潜在增长率在6.5%-7%之间。在潜在增长平台下移,需求增长趋缓等影响下,预计2015年中国GDP增长7.1%左右,低于2014年水平。在房地产投资大幅减速,基础设施投资趋缓、制造业投资难以改善等因素
After 30 years of rapid development, China’s economy has now entered a new normal. From the perspective of supply, weaker demographic dividends, lower savings rates and lower total factor productivity lead to lower potential growth rates. From the demand side, infrastructure investment potential is declining, urbanization is slowing down and export growth is slowing down. Will lead to potential growth slowdown. Therefore, the potential growth rate of China in the future is between 6.5% -7%. Under the influence of the potential growth platform moving downwards and the slowdown in demand growth, China’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of about 7.1% in 2015, lower than the 2014 level. In the real estate investment slump, infrastructure investment slowed down, manufacturing investment is difficult to improve and other factors