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利用农业部种植业管理司发布的数据,针对近45 a(1970~2014年)来我国农业气象灾害变化特征及其对粮食产量影响的问题,采用数理统计和偏相关分析方法进行了研究。结果表明:黑龙江、山东和河南是受灾和成灾面积最大的省份;山西和内蒙古是受灾率和成灾率最高的两个省份;旱灾是我国主要的气象灾害,洪涝灾害波动明显,沿海地区台风灾害持续上升;东北地区旱灾比重增加,低温灾害有所减轻;华东地区洪涝、低温和台风灾害比重增加;华北地区低温和风雹呈现上升趋势;华南地区台风灾害增长显著;西北地区风雹和低温增加;西南地区旱灾和洪涝走势相反;中南地区旱灾减轻,洪涝加重;气象灾害直接影响到粮食总产量,干旱和洪涝灾害影响尤为明显;气象灾害与粮食产量的关系呈现出先上升后下降趋势。
Based on the data of agricultural crop meteorological disasters in recent 45 years (1970 ~ 2014) and the impact on the grain yield in China, the data released by the Crop Production Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture were used to study the methods of mathematical statistics and partial correlation analysis. The results show that Heilongjiang, Shandong and Henan are the provinces with the largest area affected and disastrous. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are the two provinces with the highest disaster and disaster rates. Drought is the main meteorological disaster in our country. Fluctuations in floods and floods are obvious. The typhoon in the coastal areas The proportion of drought in northeast China increased and the low-temperature disasters alleviated; the proportion of floods, low temperatures and typhoon disasters in East China increased; the temperature and hail of low temperature and hailstones in North China showed an upward trend; the typhoon disasters in South China increased significantly; the hail and low temperature increased in Northwest China The drought and floods in southwest China have the opposite trend. The drought in central and southern regions is aggravating. The meteorological disasters have a direct impact on the total output of grain and the impact of droughts and floods is particularly obvious. The relationship between meteorological disasters and food production shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.