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论述了 Fuzzy控制预报模型的建模方法 ,并探讨了该模型在麦长管蚜发生期预报中的应用 :我们将麦长管蚜发生期的预报过程拟成一个 Fuzzy控制系统 ,预报因子作为系统的输入 ,预报对象作为系统的输出 ,根据历年系统观测资料 ,建立了 Fuzzy控制预报模型 .对历史资料进行回代验证 ,其历史拟合率达 1 0 0 %.将 1 995年观测数据作为独立样本进行试报 ,预测结果与实际一致 .
This paper discusses the modeling method of fuzzy control forecasting model and discusses the application of the model in the prediction of the occurrence period of Sphingidae: we make a fuzzy control system for forecasting the occurrence period of Sphingidae, forecasting factor as a system , The forecast object is taken as the output of the system, and the fuzzy control forecasting model is established based on the historical observational data. The historical data is verified by the verification method and the historical fitting rate is 100%. The data of 1995 as independent Sample test report, the forecast results with the actual.