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目的了解2005~2014年盘锦市猩红热流行状况,为制定有效的防控措施提供科学依据。方法利用Excel2007分析近10年盘锦市猩红热疫情的三间分布,应用季节变动法对2015年猩红热疫情进行长期预测。结果 2005~2014年盘锦市共报告猩红热病例1 798例,年平均发病率为13.39/10万,2008年报告病例数最多,达321例,发病率为24.51/10万;时间分布上具有明显的双峰分布,每年4~6月和11月至次年1月为高发期,分别占病例总数的33.54%(603/1 798)和31.31%(563/1 798);地区分布兴隆台区和双台子区高发为主,发病率分别为24.16/10万(499/2 065 089)和18.37/10万(807/4 393 398)(P<0.01);人群发病以4~7岁最多,占发病总数的61.74%(1 110/1 798);男性1 087例,女性711例(P<0.01),男女性别比为1.53∶1;预测数据显示2015年各月发病数低于2014年及近10年月平均发病数。结论盘锦市猩红热的流行具有周期性。
Objective To understand the epidemic situation of scarlet fever in Panjin City from 2005 to 2014 and provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control measures. Methods Excel2007 was used to analyze the three distributions of scarlet fever in Panjin city in recent 10 years. The seasonal variation method was used to predict the 2015 scarlet fever epidemic. Results A total of 1 798 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Panjin City from 2005 to 2014, with an average annual incidence rate of 13.39 / 100 000. The number of reported cases in 2008 was the highest (321 cases), with an incidence rate of 24.51 / Bimodal distribution, from April to June every year and from November to January next year as the high incidence period, accounting for 33.54% (603/1 798) and 31.31% (563/1 798) of the total number of cases, respectively; regional distribution of Xinglongtai and The prevalence in Shuangtai sub-district was 24.16 / 100,000 (499/2 065 089) and 18.37 / 100,000 (807/4 393 398) respectively (P <0.01). The incidence of the disease was highest in 4-7 years 61.74% (1110/1 798) of the total number of cases; 1 087 males and 711 females (P <0.01), with a sex ratio of 1.53:1; the forecast data showed that the incidence of each month in 2015 was lower than that in 2014 and nearly The average incidence of 10 years. Conclusion The epidemic of scarlet fever in Panjin is cyclical.