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目的探寻适用于“同伴交换”的针具年覆盖人数估计方法。方法结合专题小组讨论、深入访谈、德尔菲法确定估计针具年覆盖人数的参数(包括针具交换、美沙酮、地区特征);采用典型抽样选择四川省4个同伴针具交换点,收集发放记录和参数数据,共获得9组合格数据;运用偏最小二乘回归建立模型。结果建立了同伴交换的针具年覆盖人数估计模型,模型中标准偏回归系数绝对值大于0.2的参数有:“静脉吸毒者(IDUs)的HIV感染率”、“累计在册人数”、“月均新到访人数”、“最近一月共针率”;模型的决定系数R2为0.89。数据质量较高时,模型估计针具覆盖人数的误差能达到5%以下。结论该模型能有效估计同伴交换的针具年覆盖人数,具有一定的应用价值。数据质量是影响估计准确性的主要因素。
Objective To explore the method of estimating the annual number of needles for “peer exchange”. Methods Combined with the panel discussion, in-depth interviews, the Delphi method was used to determine the parameters (including needle exchange, methadone and regional characteristics) that estimated the annual number of needles covered by Delphi method; And parameter data, a total of 9 sets of qualified data were obtained; using partial least squares regression model. Results The model of annual exchange rate of needles for peer exchange was established. The parameters of standard partial regression coefficients in the model with an absolute value greater than 0.2 were: “HIV infection rate of IDUs”, “cumulative number of patients” , “Average number of new arrivals per month”, “total needle rate in recent months”, and coefficient of determination model R2 of 0.89. When the quality of the data is high, the error of the estimated number of covered needles in the model can reach less than 5%. Conclusion The model can effectively estimate the annual number of needle exchange partners exchange, which has a certain application value. Data quality is the main factor affecting the accuracy of the estimation.