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构建了海洋与溢油模型相耦合的长江河口的溢油轨迹预报系统,海洋模型能较好模拟该海域的表层流场;溢油模型采用拉格朗日和随机游走的油粒子追踪法,可快速预测油粒子的漂移扩散轨迹和扫海面积。研究表明,大潮时溢油的油粒子的分布范围和扫海面积均比小潮时刻大,在南支溢出的油粒子会漂移到南、北港和南、北槽,对生态环境危害最大,会影响陈行和青草沙两大水库取水口,并对中华鲟和九段沙湿地保护区产生潜在的生态危害;在北支溢出的油粒子主要分布在北支水道和两岸,如果溢油点位于上段会倒灌进南支水道,将会产生较大的生态危害;在南港溢出的油粒子会漂移到南北槽,不会对两大水库和中华鲟保护区产生危害,但会对九段沙保护区造成潜在的危害;在北港溢出的油粒子则会漂移到崇明岛外海,且扩散范围很大,只对中华鲟保护区造成危害。
The oil spill trajectory forecasting system of the Changjiang estuary, which is coupled with the ocean oil spill model, is constructed. The ocean model can simulate the surface flow field well. The oil spill model uses Lagrangian and random walk oil particle tracing method, It can quickly predict the drift trajectory and sweep area of oil particles. The results show that the oil spill area and sea sweeping area during the tide are larger than those during the tide. Spilled oil particles in the south branch will drift to the south, north and southern and northern troughs, which will have the greatest impact on the ecological environment. Chenxing and Qingcaosha two reservoir intake, and the Chinese sturgeon and Jiuduansha wetlands have potential ecological hazards; spilled oil particles in the North Branch of the North Branch of the waterways and the two sides, if the spill point in the upper will be Inverted into the South branch channel, will have a greater ecological risk; oil spills in the South Harbor will drift to the North-South slot, will not harm the two major reservoirs and Chinese Sturgeon Protected Area, but will Jusaduisha caused potential The oil particles that spill over at North Harbor will drifts to the sea outside Chongming Island and the spread will be very large, which will only endanger the Chinese sturgeon reserve.