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1996年以来,中国废纸进口总量屡创新高,2009年已达到2750万t,比上年同期增长13.59%,占该年度纸浆总消耗的27.57%,生产的纸产品占国内需求总量的1/3左右,说明中国造纸行业对进口废纸原料依赖严重。若不对原料来源进行适当调整,势必会影响中国造纸业未来的发展。文章以1996～2009年中国造纸工业相关数据为基础,通过建立多元线性回归模型,分析了对废纸进口贸易产生影响的主要因素,并由此为政府、企业等制定相应缓解废纸进口的政策建议提供参考依据。
Since 1996, China’s total import of waste paper has hit a record high, reaching 27.5 million tons in 2009, up 13.59% over the same period of last year and accounting for 27.57% of the total consumption of pulp in that year. The output of paper products accounted for the total domestic demand 1/3, indicating that China’s paper industry relies heavily on the import of waste paper raw materials. Without appropriate adjustments to the sources of raw materials, it is bound to affect the future development of China’s paper industry. Based on the data of China’s papermaking industry from 1996 to 2009, this article analyzes the main factors affecting the import trade of wastepaper by establishing a multiple linear regression model, and then formulates corresponding policies for government and enterprises to ease the import of wastepaper Suggestions provide a reference.