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基于协整理论和误差修正模型,研究了影响我国电耗的主要因素,着重考虑电价、国内生产总值和工业在经济结构中所占比重,并对1979—2006年各影响因素与电耗的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:国内生产总值与电耗不存在长期均衡关系,工业所占比重变化与电耗变化之间没有显著的格兰杰因果关系;而电价与电耗之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系和协整关系,且脉冲响应检验显示,电价对电耗的影响将逐渐加大,随着电价机制的市场化改革,其影响会更加明显。对中国降低电耗水平,科学制定电价提出了建议。
Based on the cointegration theory and error correction model, the main factors affecting the electricity consumption in our country are studied. The price, GDP and the proportion of industry in the economic structure are emphatically considered, and the influencing factors and power consumption in 1979-2006 The relationship between the empirical study. The results show that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and electricity consumption, and there is no significant Granger causality between changes in the proportion of industrial output and electricity consumption. There is a two-way Granger causality between electricity price and electricity consumption Relationship and co-integration relationship, and the impulse response test shows that the impact of electricity prices on power consumption will gradually increase, with the pricing mechanism of the market-oriented reforms, the impact will be more apparent. China’s power consumption reduction level, the scientific development of electricity prices made recommendations.