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目的探索某部队肺结核发病规律,利用预测模型对其发病率进行预测,为部队相关部门制定针对性的防控措施提供参考依据。方法根据某部队2001-2010年的肺结核发病率,应用灰色预测系统,建立肺结核的发病率预测模型,并进行中长期的预测。结果预测模型为:X^(1)(k+1)=-179.369 574e-0.049 677k+190.669 574。检验表明,该模型精度为2级,能较好地对肺结核发病进行中长期预测。预测结果显示,2011-2013年该部队肺结核发病率分别为5.559/万、5.290/万、5.033/万。结论模型适用于某部队肺结核发病率预测,并且肺结核发病率以每年4.82%的幅度缓慢下降。
Objective To explore the regularity of pulmonary tuberculosis in a military unit and to predict its incidence using predictive model so as to provide a reference for formulating targeted prevention and control measures for the relevant departments of the armed forces. Methods According to the incidence of tuberculosis in a certain unit from 2001 to 2010, a gray prediction system was used to establish the predictive model for the incidence of tuberculosis and predict it in the medium and long term. The prediction model is: X ^ (1) (k + 1) = - 179.369 574e-0.049 677k + 190.669 574. Test showed that the model accuracy of 2, can better predict the incidence of tuberculosis in the long-term. The forecast results show that the incidence rates of tuberculosis in this unit from 2011 to 2013 were 5.559 / million, 5.290 / million and 5.033 / million respectively. Conclusion The model is suitable for predicting the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in a certain unit and the incidence of tuberculosis slowly decreases by 4.82% per year.