资本品短缺、货币紧缩与中国总产出下降(1914—1918)——基于“供给约束型经济”前提的研究

• 作 者: 刘巍
• 机 构: 广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心,
• 出 处: 中国经济史研究
• 发表日期: 2015年04期
• 关键词: 资本品 货币量 经济增长 近代中国 总产出 货币紧缩 经济发展水平 总供给曲线 近代工业 货币供给

本文在“供给约束型经济”前提下建立了近代中国经济增长函数,实证结果表明,进口和货币量是中国经济增长的主要影响因素。一战期间中国资本品进口严重受阻,近代工业实际到位的投资呈下降趋势,造成总供给曲线无法右移,总供给的瓶颈效应愈发严重,经济负增长不可避免。同时,由于国际银价上涨导致的白银外流,造成近代中国经济增长函数的另一个正相关解释变量——货币供给——发生了萎缩,进一步打击了中国经济。一战时期是中国经济的衰退期,且衰退程度较深,从长期来看,是近代中国50年期间表现最差的一个短周期。

This paper establishes the function of economic growth in modern China on the premise of “supply constrained economy ”. The empirical results show that the import and the amount of money are the main influencing factors of China ’s economic growth. During the First World War, China’s import of capital goods was severely hindered. Investment in the actual industry in place was declining. As a result, the general supply curve could not be shifted to the right, and the bottleneck effect of the total supply became more and more serious. The negative economic growth was inevitable. In the meantime, due to the silver outflow caused by the international silver price rise, another positive explanatory explanatory variable of modern China’s economic growth function - money supply - has shrunk and further hit China’s economy. World War I was the recession of China’s economy and the recession was deeper. In the long run, it was the shortest period in the 50 years of modern China.