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目的随着中国人口年龄结构的变化,风疹平均感染年龄的上升,麻疹减毒活疫苗常规免疫接种率的提高和国产麻疹-流行性腮腺炎-风疹联合减毒活疫苗产量的增加,风疹减毒活疫苗(Rubella Vaccine,Live;RV)免疫策略的问题需要重新考虑。在目前中国人口年龄结构和风疹流行动态形势下,估计不同RV免疫策略的效果。方法使用人口预测数学模型和非线性微分方程组风疹传染数学模型及其数值解进行分析预测。结果低接种率的儿童RV常规免疫程序会带来增加先天性风疹综合征(Congenital Rubella Syndrome,CRS)例数的负面影响。结论维持>80%的儿童RV常规免疫接种率,可望在2050年左右从中国消除风疹。强化免疫与>80%的儿童RV常规免疫接种率的结合,可进一步减少CRS例数并提前消除风疹。
OBJECTIVE With the change of population age structure in China, the average ages of infection of rubella increased, the routine vaccination rate of live attenuated measles vaccine and the increase of domestic measles-mumps-rubella live attenuated vaccine production, The issue of immunization strategies for live vaccine (Rubella Vaccine, Live; RV) needs to be reconsidered. Under the current population age structure and epidemic situation of rubella in China, the effects of different RV immunization strategies are estimated. Methods The population forecasting mathematical model and the nonlinear differential equation rubella infection mathematical model and its numerical solution were analyzed and predicted. As a result, the routine immunization schedule of children with low vaccination rates will bring about the negative effect of increasing the number of cases of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS). Conclusions Maintenance of RV routine immunization coverage in children> 80% is expected to eradicate rubella in China by around 2050. The combination of intensive immunization and> 80% of children’s regular RV immunization rates further reduces the number of CRS cases and eliminates rubella ahead of time.