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流通业是我国经济发展中的基础与先导产业,但不同区域流通业发展极不平衡,通过空间相关性检验发现87%省份的流通业之间存在正向的空间相关性。当前城镇化过程中人口城镇化与土地城镇化并不协调,二者对流通业影响的路径也不一样。通过建立空间滞后模型、空间误差模型与空间杜宾模型,发现人口城镇化主要通过改善城镇居民消费能力、提高地区的人力资本和创新能力等来促进流通业的产出效率,而土地城镇化则更多地通过提高工业生产水平、进行固定资产投资来促进流通业的产出效率;研究还发现人口城镇化过程中特别是相邻省份之间在流通业发展上存在竞争效应,城镇人口的跨省份流出可能会对本省份流通业发展产生负面影响,土地城镇化过程中固定资产投资和工业产出水平对周围省份流通业的空间溢出效应明显。
The circulation industry is the basic and leading industry in the economic development of our country. However, the development of circulation industry in different regions is extremely unbalanced. According to the spatial correlation test, it is found that there is a positive spatial correlation between the circulation industries in 87% of provinces. In the current process of urbanization, population urbanization and land urbanization are not coordinated, and the two paths to the circulation industry are also different. Through the establishment of space lag model, space error model and space Dobbin model, it is found that urbanization of population promotes the output efficiency of the circulation industry mainly through improving the spending power of urban residents, improving human capital and innovation ability in urban areas, while land urbanization The study also found that there is a competitive effect in the process of urbanization of population, especially in the development of circulation industry among adjacent provinces. The cross-over of urban population The outflow of provinces may have a negative impact on the development of the circulation industry in the province. The effects of the fixed assets investment and industrial output levels on the circulation of the circulation industries in the surrounding provinces during the process of land urbanization are obvious.