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根据艾滋病在新疆的流行特点,建立了一个非线性动力系统的数学模型来研究艾滋病在新疆高危人群中传播的规律.通过查阅大量的统计数据和文献资料,确定了模型中部分参数的具体数值,然后通过数据拟合的方法得到了各个高危人群中的HIV病毒的传染性系数.在模型中,选择2004年底(2005年初)作为系统的初始点,预测了艾滋病未来几年内在新疆的流行趋势.最后,提出并比较遏止艾滋病传播的各项干预措施.
According to the epidemic characteristics of AIDS in Xinjiang, a mathematical model of nonlinear dynamical system was established to study the transmission of AIDS in high-risk groups in Xinjiang.According to a large number of statistical data and literature data, the numerical values of some parameters in the model were determined, Then, by means of data fitting, the contagious coefficient of HIV in all high-risk groups was obtained.In the model, the end of 2004 (early 2005) was chosen as the initial point of the system to predict the epidemic trend of AIDS in Xinjiang in the next few years. Finally, propose and compare interventions to stop the spread of AIDS.