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罗伯特.吉尔平指出:“在过去三个世纪中,核心区所在地和经济活动的全球分布不断变化,从地中海转向北大西洋,到了我们这个时代,又转向太平洋。亚洲和拉丁美洲新兴工业国的出现改变了国际分工,并导致国际政治经济性质和领导权的深刻变化。”①在500多年的世界近现代史上,欧洲的市场经济逐渐展开为全球经济。世界经济体系从地中海扩展到西欧,又从整个欧洲扩展到美洲、印度、远东,今天已经囊括全球绝大多数国家。这个宏大而又复杂的世界经济运动,犹如汹涌的波涛将一个又一个大国推上历史的巅峰,同时又将一个又一个大国从巅峰上推下。为什么有的国家能够实现持续的繁荣,而有的国家的崛起只是昙花一现?在近现代史上,葡萄牙、法国、德国以及苏联等倏忽即逝的崛起历程以及英美等国持久的力量存续是值得深入思考的。这里,我们从经济地理演化的角度来考察一个国家处于一定地理位置之上的产业——国家实力的真正依托,由此分析中国崛起并实现力量存续的战略选择。
Robert Gilpin pointed out: “In the past three centuries, the global distribution of the core areas and economic activities has been changing from the Mediterranean to the North Atlantic, to the present time and to the Pacific Ocean. Emerging industrial nations in Asia and Latin America have emerged Changed the international division of labor and led to profound changes in the nature and leadership of international politics and economics. ”① In more than 500 years of world modern history, the market economy in Europe gradually expanded into a global economy. The world economic system has expanded from the Mediterranean to Western Europe and from Europe to the Americas, India and the Far East. Today, the world economy has covered the vast majority of countries in the world. This magnificent and complex world economic movement is like a turbulent wave bringing the great powers after another onto the pinnacle of history while pushing the great powers one after another down the hill. Why is it that some countries can achieve sustained prosperity while the rise of other countries is only short-lived? In the modern history, the fleeting rise of Portugal, France, Germany and the Soviet Union, as well as the lasting strength of the United States and other countries, are worth pondering deeply of. Here, from the perspective of economic and geographical evolution, we examine the real backing of the industry in a certain geographical position and the strength of a country and analyze the strategic choice of China’s rise and its survival.