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采用生态足迹模型结合ESDA分析法,以县域为基本尺度,对湖北省2003~2012年间耕地生态承压能力的时空演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)研究期内,湖北省人均耕地生态足迹呈上升趋势,耕地承压能力下降,耕地利用总体呈不可持续状态;(2)空间分布上,各县市耕地承压能力差异明显,总体呈现“西高中东低”的格局,县市数量上呈“不可持续>弱可持续>可持续>强可持续”的“金字塔型”结构;(3)空间关联上,湖北省耕地生态承压能力存在显著的正的空间自相关;HH型集中分布在鄂西且布局稳定;LL型主要分布在鄂中及鄂东,呈“中部扩大,东部缩小”的趋势;HL型分布较分散,且有增多和东移的趋势,东部地区耕地承压能力出现了极化趋势。中低产田改造及种植结构调整是增强耕地可持续利用的有效途径。
Using the ecological footprint model and ESDA analysis method, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land ecological pressure-bearing capacity in Hubei Province from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed based on the county scale. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the ecological footprint per capita of cultivated land in Hubei Province showed an upward trend, and the pressure-bearing capacity of cultivated land decreased. The overall utilization of cultivated land was unsustainable. (2) In the spatial distribution, , Showing a pattern of “West High Middle East Low” as a whole, showing “” unsustainable> weakly sustainable> sustainable> strong “pyramid” structure in counties and cities; (3) spatial correlation , There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of cultivated land ecological pressure-bearing capacity in Hubei Province; HH-type is concentrated in Western Hubei Province and the layout is stable; LL-type is mainly distributed in central Hubei and eastern Hubei Province, showing “central expansion and eastern reduction” Trend; HL type distribution is more scattered, and there is a trend of increasing and moving eastward, and the pressure-bearing capacity of cultivated land in the eastern region shows a polarization trend. Middle and low yield fields and planting structure adjustment is to enhance the sustainable use of cultivated land an effective way.