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本文采用相关性分析,根据相关的经济影响因素,确定经济指标与通货膨胀的关系,从中选取与通货膨胀关系较大的4个指标作为研究对象。根据门限模型基本原理,使用回归模型,对1992年至2010年间这4个经济指标进行实证分析,并对中国通货膨胀的最优门限值水平进行估计,得到通胀率的最优目标区间。研究结果表明,通货膨胀率在最优区间内,将对中国经济有一定的促进作用,而超出该范围将对中国经济增长产生显著的负面影响;中国通货膨胀率与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,通货膨胀率的最优门限区间为(-0.3%～4.96%)。
In this paper, we use the correlation analysis to determine the relationship between economic indicators and inflation according to the relevant economic factors, and select four indicators that have a great relationship with inflation as the research object. According to the basic principle of the threshold model, we use the regression model to make an empirical analysis of the four economic indicators from 1992 to 2010, and estimate the optimal threshold level of inflation in China to get the optimal target range of inflation rate. The results show that the inflation rate in the optimal range, will have a certain role in promoting the Chinese economy, and beyond that range will have a significant negative impact on China’s economic growth; there is a nonlinear between China’s inflation rate and economic growth Relationship, the optimal threshold of inflation rate (-0.3% ~ 4.96%).