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考虑到海平面上升对长江口水动力构成的严重威胁,该文基于MIKE21软件建立了长江口二维水动力数学模型,采用实测潮位、流速以及流向资料对模型进行了验证。对相关文献和IPCC报告进行总结归纳,得到2100年海平面保守上升值约为0.5 m。运用验证好的数学模型对海平面上升0.5 m后长江口洪季水动力进行了数值模拟。计算结果表明:海平面上升后,涨潮时间增长,落潮时间缩短;海平面上升0.5 m后,长江口南北支、南北港以及南北槽高潮位增加了0.43 m–0.46 m,高潮位增幅沿程向上减小,北支上段涨潮动力受阻较明显(潮位增幅较大);海平面上升0.5 m后,北支流速增幅比南支大,北支上段落潮流量增幅达82.8%,对北支水道的发展有利。总体而言,海平面上升对目前长江口沿岸的标准构成了一定威胁,但对已经衰退的北支水道有利。
Taking into account the sea level rise posed a serious threat to the hydrodynamics of the Yangtze River estuary, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Yangtze Estuary was established based on MIKE21 software. The model was verified by the measured tide level, velocity and direction data. Summarizing relevant literature and the IPCC report, the conservative increase of the sea level in 2100 is estimated to be about 0.5 m. The mathematical model of the Yangtze River Estuary flood is used to simulate the flood season hydrodynamics after the sea level rises by 0.5 m with the verified mathematical model. The results show that after the sea level rises, the tide time increases and the tide time shortens. After the sea level rises 0.5 m, the tidal range at the north, south, north and south troughs and the north-south trough increases 0.43 m-0.46 m, After the sea level rises 0.5 m, the north branch velocity increase is larger than that of the south branch, and the tidal flow increase of the upper part of the north branch reaches 82.8%. The velocity of the north branch water channel Development is favorable. Overall, rising sea levels pose a threat to the current standards along the Yangtze Estuary, but are favorable to the already-decimated North Branch channel.