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国际金价的大幅波动引起了广泛的关注,历史上黄金价格波动的特征如何,以及为什么会产生波动值得进行探究。本文首先分析了黄金价格历史上两次大的波动,分别为20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系解体以后的价格变化和2008年以来的波动。然后分析了国际黄金市场的定价机制,包括生产价格、市场价格和准官方价格。最后并从供求关系和美元等方面分析了黄金价格波动的成因。
The wide fluctuation of the international gold price has drawn wide attention. What has historically been the characteristics of the gold price volatility and why volatility should be explored. This paper first analyzes the two major fluctuations in the history of gold prices, which are the price changes since the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s and the fluctuations since 2008 respectively. Then it analyzes the pricing mechanism of the international gold market, including the production price, the market price and the quasi-official price. Finally, the paper analyzes the causes of gold price volatility from the perspective of supply and demand and the U.S. dollar.