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快速有效的评估是应急管理理论和实践中非常重要的一项工作,风险评价和损失评价早已有之,但是由于突发事件的复杂性等特点,现有的评价方法仍然存在不足。本文提出了一个新的概念——“可减缓性”评价,它评测一个突发事件发生后可以被减缓的程度,从而使应急管理人员更加及时有效地采取措施,在灾害造成更大损失前尽可能多地保全人员和物资财产。本文根据突发事件的不同特点和分类建立了相应的模型,从推迟的时间和降低的损失两个维度对“可减缓性”进行了度量,最后用两个例子对模型的应用进行了说明。
The rapid and effective assessment is a very important task in the theory and practice of emergency management. The risk assessment and the loss assessment have long existed. However, due to the complexity of emergencies, the existing assessment methods are still inadequate. This paper presents a new concept of “mitigability”, which evaluates the extent to which an emergency can be mitigated so that emergency managers can take more timely and effective measures to cause greater losses at disasters Preserve as much personnel and material assets as you can before. In this paper, according to the different characteristics and classification of emergencies, a corresponding model is established, and the “mitigability” is measured from the two dimensions of deferred time and reduced loss. Finally, the application of the model with two examples Description.