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针对2008年全球金融危机之后美日欧等发达经济体长期复苏乏力的态势,美国经济学家萨默斯提出了长期停滞理论。该理论认为,由于发达经济体的均衡实际利率将长期为负,货币政策受到“零下限”约束难以将现实中的实际利率压低至均衡实际利率的水平,由此导致经济体长期复苏乏力,而应对长期停滞的有效方法是实施积极财政政策以扩大总需求。长期停滞理论提出之后,许多知名学者表示认同,但是也有部分学者对该理论的核心机理和政策主张提出了质疑。事实上,长期停滞理论即使成立,也不适用于中国。究其原因,经济发展新常态以来中国均衡实际利率稳定在3%左右,明显高于美日欧等发达经济体。而且,中国政策利率水平仍然相对较高,通胀率和通胀预期也处于较高水平,因此可以通过降低政策利率或者提高通胀率,将实际利率降到均衡实际利率的水平。由此可见,中国经济并未陷入长期停滞。
In view of the long-term recovery of the developed economies such as the United States, Japan, and Europe since the global financial crisis in 2008 was weak, the United States economist Summers proposed a long-term stagnation theory. The theory holds that since the equilibrium real interest rate of developed economies will be negative for a long time, it is difficult for monetary policy to be constrained by the “zero limit” to depress the real real interest rate to the level of equilibrium real interest rate, which will result in the sluggish economic recovery in the long term , And an effective way to deal with long-term stagnation is to implement a proactive fiscal policy to increase aggregate demand. After the long-term stagnation theory was proposed, many well-known scholars agree, but some scholars have also questioned the core mechanism and policy of the theory. In fact, the theory of long-term stagnation does not apply to China even if it is established. The reason is that since the new normal economic development, China’s equilibrium real interest rate has stabilized at about 3%, much higher than developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Moreover, China’s policy interest rates are still relatively high, inflation and inflation expectations are also at a high level, so the real interest rate can be reduced to the level of the real effective interest rate by lowering the policy interest rate or raising the inflation rate. It can be seen from this that China’s economy has not stalled in the long run.