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根据轨道结构存在的不平顺特征及其形成原因,提出基于数字统计理论、信号处理理论和轨道不平顺检测数据的综合因子法,对各类轨道不平顺的发展趋势进行预测,为铁路线路的维修提供参考依据。方法的核心思想是基于对同一地段轨道不平顺变化规律相近的认知,即轨道在线路脆弱的地方会更脆弱,在不平顺幅值较大的地方其不平顺发展也相应较大。综合考虑影响轨道不平顺发展的众多因素,如轨道系统各部件的材料影响、铁路施工以及各种运营条件、环境因素等,将这些影响因素共同作用后的整体效果反映在构建的预测模型中,给出相应的综合因子和随机量的参数矩阵,并建立轨道不平顺管理的分级概念。计算结果表明,综合因子法能够较好地预测轨道不平顺的变化。
According to the irregularities of track structure and its formation reasons, a comprehensive factor method based on digital statistics theory, signal processing theory and track irregularity detection data is proposed to predict the development trend of various track irregularities and to provide a basis for railway line maintenance Provide a reference basis. The core idea of the method is based on the recognition of the similar orbit irregularities in the same lot, that is, the orbit will be more fragile where the route is fragile and its irregularities will also be relatively large where the irregularities have large amplitude. Considering many factors that affect the development of track irregularities, such as the material influence of rail system components, railway construction and various operating conditions and environmental factors, the overall effect of the interaction of these factors is reflected in the construction of the prediction model, The corresponding matrix of the synthesis factor and the random quantity is given, and the classification concept of track irregularity management is established. The calculation results show that the comprehensive factor method can better predict the track irregularities.