论文部分内容阅读
China’s home prices took an upward swing since the last quarter of 2012 despite government-imposed measures to cool the market. In light of this， the State Council unveiled five new policies to reaffirm its stance on tightening the housing market. However， the new policies were questioned for their lack of originality and for not including long-anticipated rules to tighten loans for second home purchases.
A warning signal
The Chinese Government began its macrocontrol policies on the real estate market in 2003， with the aim of regulating overheated investment in the sector. Since the second half of 2007， the goal has shifted to curbing skyrocketing property prices. The 10 policies unveiled in 2010 introduced an array of tightening measures， ranging from raising the minimum down payment and higher interest rates for second home mortgages to putting a conditional ban on the buying of properties by non-local residents. The 10 policies were deemed the strictest control measures ever. In 2011， the State Council released another eight policies.
Hu Cunzhi， Vice Minister of Land and Resources， said on February 22 that tightening measures achieved good results in 2012， restricting home purchases for investment purposes and promoting supply-demand balance.
However， property prices didn’t fall as much as people expected， and began to rebound after one-year stability， backed by the country’s pro-growth policies， including two consecutive interest rate cuts and the lowering of banks’reserve requirement ratio.
Home prices keep rising at a quicker pace in major Chinese cities. Out of a statistical pool of 70 major cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics （NBS）， 53 recorded that new home prices increased from the previous month in January， while only 10 cities saw declining prices and seven recorded the same prices.
New commercial housing prices in first-tier cities including Beijing， Shanghai， Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 2.1 percent， 1.3 percent， 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent， respectively， on a month-on-month basis， marking a quicker pace of growth than in December.
With a foreseeable recovery in the sector， some speculative home purchase capital rushed back into the housing market. Home purchases recorded faster-than-expected growth in many cities， fueled by strong demand， price discounts and home buyers’ fear of further price hikes. Property developers resumed their appetite for investment in the sector， resulting in surges in land sales， according to a report from the Standard Chartered Bank. To tame the sizzling market， the State Council unveiled the five policies on February 22.
“But the five policies are the mildest in the history of property market controls. There is nothing new. They are mostly a reiteration of previous measures，” said Yin Zhongli， a research fellow at the Institute of Finance and Banking of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）.
Yin said that the new policies were milder than market expectations， as the anticipated tightening measures on loans for second home purchases weren’t included. “Therefore， the new policies won’t be able to contain fast-rising home prices，” he said.
Liu Jianwei， a senior statistician with the NBS， thinks that an overall drastic rebound nationwide is unlikely due to an abundant home supply. “The new policies are not aimed at hurting the property market， but at sending a warning signal to the current rebound.”
“The new policies set the tune for property controls this year. On the basis of maintaining continuity and stability， this year’s macro-control on the property market will be appropriately tight，” said Liu.
Role of property tax
In the seemingly mild set of new policies， people found a stricter measure： property tax. In China’s real estate market， property tax—while wellestablished and taken for granted in Western countries—is a relatively new phenomenon， and is viewed as a measure to restrict the buying of homes for investment purposes.
Wang Yong， an analyst with China Securities， thinks that government determination to expand property tax on a trial basis was the reason for plunging property-related stock prices.
Property-related stocks have witnessed robust growth in the A-share market since October 2012. However， immediately after February 22， when the new policies were unveiled by the State Council， those stocks nosedived and some of them fell by 40 percent. “The new policies brought panic to investors，” said Wang.
Jia Kang， Director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science under the Ministry of Finance， doubted the effect of property tax in curbing housing prices.
Expanding the scope of experimental property tax has far-reaching significance in controlling the market and in deepening tax reforms. But housing price hikes are caused by many factors. Property tax is only one of many measures to regulate the market and won’t lead to immediate housing price falls， said Jia.
Property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing were introduced on a trial basis on January 28， 2011， in a bid to help cool the real estate market. Nearly 20，000 units of residential homes were hit with property tax in Shanghai in 2011 and the number jumped to 37，000 in 2012， bringing in 2.46 trillion yuan （$395.1 billion） in tax revenues last year， according to the city’s finance and taxation authorities.
However， the implementation of a property tax failed to cool the housing market in Shanghai. In January 2013， new commercial housing prices in the city rose 1.5 percent from the previous year and 3.4 percent from the same period in 2010.
Property tax trials for now aim at regulating the market instead of raising revenue. Judging from trials in Shanghai and Chongqing， property tax can only be expanded gradually， said Jia.
Restricting home purchases for investment purposes is a long-term task for China’s realestate controls， he said.
Future trend
Over 20 cities， including Beijing and Shenzhen， said they would formulate housing price control targets as soon as possible， in response to the Central Government’s latest call.
Related ministries and departments are mulling over regulations as well. The Ministry of Land and Resources， a major participant in housing market controls， made specific plans for land supplies on the day that the five policies were unveiled.
The Ministry of Land and Resources will maintain a steady land supply. First， it will think ahead to ensure sufficient land supply when formulating this year’s residential housing land supply plan. Second， it will accelerate releasing land inventories for sale in the market as soon as possible. Third， it will intensify efforts in utilizing idle land. Finally， different measures should be rolled out to balance land supply， according to Vice Minister Hu.
Yi Xianrong， a research fellow at CASS’s Institute of Finance and Banking， said the housing market should be dominated by a need for accommodations instead of investment purposes. This is what the Chinese Government has continuously emphasized when introducing tightening measures to crack down on speculative home purchases.
“The key lies in how to shift demand to accommodation needs instead of investment. The government still has policy reserves that could be used to achieve that aim， such as taxation and mortgage policies，” said Yi.
New Control Policies
Improving the system for stabilizing housing prices. Local governments in major cities should publish their annual targets for property price rises and improve accountability. Strictly curbing speculation in the housing market. Cities that have imposed restrictions on the housing market should maintain their grip in 2013， while other cities in which home prices have soared too fast will be asked to introduce curbing measures such as purchase limits. Experimental property tax reforms should be expanded to more regions.
Ensuring land supplies for housing projects. In principle， land supplies for home construction should not be lower than the average amount in the past five years. A greater supply should be allocated to medium-sized and small apartments.
Boosting the construction of government-subsidized housing for low-income households. A total of 4.7 million units of subsidized housing will be completed this year while construction will start on another 6.3 million units.
Intensifying housing market supervision promptly. Market monitoring will be strengthened and information will be released. Real estate agencies will be more strictly prohibited from activities against laws and regulations.
A warning signal
The Chinese Government began its macrocontrol policies on the real estate market in 2003， with the aim of regulating overheated investment in the sector. Since the second half of 2007， the goal has shifted to curbing skyrocketing property prices. The 10 policies unveiled in 2010 introduced an array of tightening measures， ranging from raising the minimum down payment and higher interest rates for second home mortgages to putting a conditional ban on the buying of properties by non-local residents. The 10 policies were deemed the strictest control measures ever. In 2011， the State Council released another eight policies.
Hu Cunzhi， Vice Minister of Land and Resources， said on February 22 that tightening measures achieved good results in 2012， restricting home purchases for investment purposes and promoting supply-demand balance.
However， property prices didn’t fall as much as people expected， and began to rebound after one-year stability， backed by the country’s pro-growth policies， including two consecutive interest rate cuts and the lowering of banks’reserve requirement ratio.
Home prices keep rising at a quicker pace in major Chinese cities. Out of a statistical pool of 70 major cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics （NBS）， 53 recorded that new home prices increased from the previous month in January， while only 10 cities saw declining prices and seven recorded the same prices.
New commercial housing prices in first-tier cities including Beijing， Shanghai， Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose 2.1 percent， 1.3 percent， 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent， respectively， on a month-on-month basis， marking a quicker pace of growth than in December.
With a foreseeable recovery in the sector， some speculative home purchase capital rushed back into the housing market. Home purchases recorded faster-than-expected growth in many cities， fueled by strong demand， price discounts and home buyers’ fear of further price hikes. Property developers resumed their appetite for investment in the sector， resulting in surges in land sales， according to a report from the Standard Chartered Bank. To tame the sizzling market， the State Council unveiled the five policies on February 22.
“But the five policies are the mildest in the history of property market controls. There is nothing new. They are mostly a reiteration of previous measures，” said Yin Zhongli， a research fellow at the Institute of Finance and Banking of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）.
Yin said that the new policies were milder than market expectations， as the anticipated tightening measures on loans for second home purchases weren’t included. “Therefore， the new policies won’t be able to contain fast-rising home prices，” he said.
Liu Jianwei， a senior statistician with the NBS， thinks that an overall drastic rebound nationwide is unlikely due to an abundant home supply. “The new policies are not aimed at hurting the property market， but at sending a warning signal to the current rebound.”
“The new policies set the tune for property controls this year. On the basis of maintaining continuity and stability， this year’s macro-control on the property market will be appropriately tight，” said Liu.
Role of property tax
In the seemingly mild set of new policies， people found a stricter measure： property tax. In China’s real estate market， property tax—while wellestablished and taken for granted in Western countries—is a relatively new phenomenon， and is viewed as a measure to restrict the buying of homes for investment purposes.
Wang Yong， an analyst with China Securities， thinks that government determination to expand property tax on a trial basis was the reason for plunging property-related stock prices.
Property-related stocks have witnessed robust growth in the A-share market since October 2012. However， immediately after February 22， when the new policies were unveiled by the State Council， those stocks nosedived and some of them fell by 40 percent. “The new policies brought panic to investors，” said Wang.
Jia Kang， Director of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science under the Ministry of Finance， doubted the effect of property tax in curbing housing prices.
Expanding the scope of experimental property tax has far-reaching significance in controlling the market and in deepening tax reforms. But housing price hikes are caused by many factors. Property tax is only one of many measures to regulate the market and won’t lead to immediate housing price falls， said Jia.
Property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing were introduced on a trial basis on January 28， 2011， in a bid to help cool the real estate market. Nearly 20，000 units of residential homes were hit with property tax in Shanghai in 2011 and the number jumped to 37，000 in 2012， bringing in 2.46 trillion yuan （$395.1 billion） in tax revenues last year， according to the city’s finance and taxation authorities.
However， the implementation of a property tax failed to cool the housing market in Shanghai. In January 2013， new commercial housing prices in the city rose 1.5 percent from the previous year and 3.4 percent from the same period in 2010.
Property tax trials for now aim at regulating the market instead of raising revenue. Judging from trials in Shanghai and Chongqing， property tax can only be expanded gradually， said Jia.
Restricting home purchases for investment purposes is a long-term task for China’s realestate controls， he said.
Future trend
Over 20 cities， including Beijing and Shenzhen， said they would formulate housing price control targets as soon as possible， in response to the Central Government’s latest call.
Related ministries and departments are mulling over regulations as well. The Ministry of Land and Resources， a major participant in housing market controls， made specific plans for land supplies on the day that the five policies were unveiled.
The Ministry of Land and Resources will maintain a steady land supply. First， it will think ahead to ensure sufficient land supply when formulating this year’s residential housing land supply plan. Second， it will accelerate releasing land inventories for sale in the market as soon as possible. Third， it will intensify efforts in utilizing idle land. Finally， different measures should be rolled out to balance land supply， according to Vice Minister Hu.
Yi Xianrong， a research fellow at CASS’s Institute of Finance and Banking， said the housing market should be dominated by a need for accommodations instead of investment purposes. This is what the Chinese Government has continuously emphasized when introducing tightening measures to crack down on speculative home purchases.
“The key lies in how to shift demand to accommodation needs instead of investment. The government still has policy reserves that could be used to achieve that aim， such as taxation and mortgage policies，” said Yi.
New Control Policies
Improving the system for stabilizing housing prices. Local governments in major cities should publish their annual targets for property price rises and improve accountability. Strictly curbing speculation in the housing market. Cities that have imposed restrictions on the housing market should maintain their grip in 2013， while other cities in which home prices have soared too fast will be asked to introduce curbing measures such as purchase limits. Experimental property tax reforms should be expanded to more regions.
Ensuring land supplies for housing projects. In principle， land supplies for home construction should not be lower than the average amount in the past five years. A greater supply should be allocated to medium-sized and small apartments.
Boosting the construction of government-subsidized housing for low-income households. A total of 4.7 million units of subsidized housing will be completed this year while construction will start on another 6.3 million units.
Intensifying housing market supervision promptly. Market monitoring will be strengthened and information will be released. Real estate agencies will be more strictly prohibited from activities against laws and regulations.