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现有文献还没有为创新研究构建起坚实的微观基础,原因在于创新过程中面临的奈特(Knight)不确定性难以被纳入正式分析。本文尝试应用四种公理化模型来刻画企业家面临的奈特不确定性,并从微观层面考察其创新决策的过程和后果。利用不为模型中个体所知的真实概率信息,我们从“旁观者”的角度比较分析了企业家基于不同准则获得的“最优产量”、“期望利润”和“期望效用”。结果表明,没有一种创新决策准则在任何情况下都“占优”于其他准则。
The existing literature has not yet established a solid microscopic foundation for innovation research. The reason is that the Knight uncertainty faced in the innovation process can hardly be included in formal analysis. This paper attempts to apply four axiomatic models to portray the Knight uncertainty faced by entrepreneurs, and examines the process and consequences of its innovation decision from the micro level. Using real probability information that is not known to the individuals in the model, we compared the “optimal yield”, “expected profit” and “” obtained by entrepreneurs based on different criteria from the perspective of “bystanders”. Expected utility". The results show that there is no one kind of innovative decision criteria that “dominantly” dominates other criteria under any circumstances.