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GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对新疆不同棉区棉花热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均回代精度都在90%以上,试报精度比回代精度要低,但也能满足实际使用要求,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。
GM (1,1) is one of the effective methods to forecast the change trend of environmental elements in time series. Through the analysis of the cotton caloric index in different cotton areas in Xinjiang, the GM (1,1) forecasting model of the time variation of caloric index was established. The average return accuracy of each model was over 90% Low, but also to meet the actual use requirements, the model can be applied to predict the results of agricultural production guidance.