论文部分内容阅读
中国A股市场「接轨式」回归已初步完成,市场整体的静态估值水平与其它新兴市场保持一致。预期2006年后企业盈利水平的变化将成为市场趋势的关键性推动力量。企业盈利下滑、上市公司代表性缺失以及市场结构性缺陷等因素,结合股改后市场容量的大幅扩张、QDII推出等负面因素,预计A股市场将通过一次集中的下跌宣泄来终结持续5年的熊市趋势。在企业整体盈利水平下滑的大背景下,盈利在产业链不同环节的分配将发生改变。成本缓解将集中体现在加工工业及生活资料生产行业,并带来业绩的恢复性上涨。部分周期性公司由于盈利下滑的压力,股票价格处于历史低位,将吸引国内外产业资金通过证券市场对此类公司进行兼并整合。预期「十一五」规划相关政策措施将在2006年后陆续出台,局部投资加速和消费稳定增长将使部分行业及公司持续受益。综合分析,我们预期2006年中国A股市场将以1000点为中轴,呈现U字型弱平衡走势,指数高点分布在第一和第四季度,低点分布在第二和第三季度。建议重点配置机电设备、银行、制药行业及相关上市公司。
China’s A-share market, “convergence” return has been completed, the overall market static valuation level consistent with other emerging markets. It is expected that changes in corporate profitability after 2006 will be key drivers of market trends. Due to such factors as the decline of corporate profits, the lack of representation of listed companies and the structural defects in the market, with the substantial expansion of market capacity after the reform, the QDII has introduced other negative factors. It is expected that the A-share market will end a bear market lasting 5 years through a concentrated downward catharsis trend. In the context of declining profitability, the distribution of profits in different sectors of the industry chain will change. Cost alleviation will be concentrated in the processing industry and living materials production industry, and bring the recovery of performance. Due to the downward pressure on earnings, some cyclical companies are at historical lows and will attract domestic and foreign industrial funds to merge and consolidate such companies through the securities market. It is expected that the relevant policies and measures of the “11th Five-Year Plan” will be put forth in succession after 2006. The acceleration of local investment and the steady growth of consumption will continue to benefit some industries and companies. Comprehensive analysis, we expect China’s A-share market in 2006 will be 1000 points as the center, showing U-shaped weak balance trend, the index high in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, the lows in the second and third quarters. It is recommended to focus on the configuration of mechanical and electrical equipment, banking, pharmaceutical industry and related listed companies.