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Logistic模型突破以往的对于碳计量的静态评估,可对数据进行动态预测。根据江苏林业产业的发展现状,将江苏林业产业分为18个小类,基于Logistic模型对江苏各林业产业碳排量进行动态预测,指出江苏林业的碳排放水平总体处于上升阶段,但增幅趋缓。江苏可以通过产业结构调整特别是通过林业第二产业结构的优化来降低碳排放水平,林业新技术的应用将提高产业碳减排效率,从而为江苏提出林业产业的低碳发展战略提供决策依据。
Logistic models break the static assessment of carbon measurement in the past and allow for the dynamic prediction of data. According to the current situation of the development of Jiangsu forestry industry, the forestry industries in Jiangsu Province are divided into 18 sub-categories. Based on the Logistic model, the dynamic carbon emissions of various forestry industries in Jiangsu Province are predicted. The overall carbon emission level of Jiangsu forestry is on the rise, . Jiangsu can reduce the level of carbon emission through industrial restructuring, especially through the optimization of the structure of the secondary industry of forestry. The application of new forestry technology will increase the efficiency of carbon emission reduction in the industry and provide the basis for decision-making on the low-carbon development strategy of forestry industry in Jiangsu.