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目的:期刊的影响因子和期刊论文被引用的情况相关,已逐渐成为评价科研人员工作的一个指标。同时,一篇论文要投到哪一个期刊也在很大程度上决定于期刊总体质量的变化趋势。本文对公共卫生、环境卫生和职业卫生领域期刊的影响因子随时间变化的趋势进行了评价。方法:本文选择了80种期刊的影响因子进行研究,这些期刊都曾在1992到2003年被SCI收录,并且在最近3年连续被收录。本文采用线性回归模型对影响因子的时间变化趋势进行评估,自变量为年,因变量为影响因子。以模型曲线的倾斜度和统计学显著性来表示影响因子的年度变化情况。结果:2003年这些期刊的影响因子为0.18～5.2。虽然一本期刊平均影响因子和年度变化之间不存在显著的相关性,但是大多数影响因子增长快的期刊其平均影响因子都大于1.5,还有一些关于公共卫生研究领域新出现的问题。结论:鉴于影响因子的公布和论文发表之间的时滞,了解影响因子的变化趋势对于选择适当期刊进行投稿非常重要。
Purpose: The impact factor of a journal is related to the fact that a journal article is cited. It has gradually become an indicator for evaluating the work of researchers. At the same time, which journal a paper is devoted to depends to a large extent on the trend of the overall quality of the journal. This article assesses the trend over time of the impact factors of journals in the areas of public health, environmental health and occupational health. Methods: This study selected 80 kinds of journal impact factors, which were collected by SCI from 1992 to 2003, and were included in the last three consecutive years. In this paper, the linear regression model is used to evaluate the time trend of the influencing factors. The independent variable is year, and the dependent variable is the influencing factor. The slope of the model curve and statistical significance to represent the annual changes in the impact of factors. Results: In 2003, the influential factors of these journals ranged from 0.18 to 5.2. Although there is no significant correlation between the average impact factor of a journal and the annual change, the average impact factor for most journals whose impact factor increases rapidly is more than 1.5. There are also some emerging issues in the field of public health research. CONCLUSION: Given the time lag between the publication of the impact factor and the publication of the paper, it is important to understand the changing trend of the impact factor for the submission of the appropriate journal.