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本文探究了卖方分析师目标价预测对基金集中持股行为的引导作用以及这种引导作用是否有助于提高基金业绩的问题。研究发现:(1)分析师目标价一致预测的变动对于基金集中持股行为具有引导作用;(2)在不同的市场时期,上述引导作用不同且这种引导作用对不同方向的基金集中持股行为具有非对称性;(3)上述引导作用能够对基金业绩产生显著影响;(4)在不同的市场时期,上述引导作用对于基金业绩的影响不同;而仅当市场处于快熊时期,这种引导作用才带来了基金正的超额收益。
This article explores the lead role of the seller analyst’s target price forecast on the fund’s concentration of shareholdings and whether such a guidance can help improve fund performance. The results show that: (1) the consistent change of the analyst’s target price has a guiding effect on the fund concentration behavior; (2) in different market periods, the aforesaid guiding roles are different and the guiding role focuses on the fund holding in different directions (3) the above guiding effect can have a significant impact on fund performance; (4) in different market periods, the above-mentioned guiding effect on the performance of the fund is different; and only when the market is in the fast bear period, this Guiding effect has brought a positive excess returns fund.