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摘 要：隨着社会经济化和城市化进程的不断加快，城市交通问题日益突出，城市机动车保有量急剧增加，产生诸如道路拥堵、大气环境污染等一系列交通问题。本文首先利用多元回归模型测算应用机动车保有量的因素，然后利用GM（1，1）模型预测影响沈阳机动车保有量未来5年的数值，并通过逐步回归分析预测沈阳市2016-2020年的机动车保有量。
关键词：机动车保有量 交通环境承载力 交通环境污染承载力
Measurement and Calculation of Motor Vehicle Ownership in Shenyang based on GM （1，1）Model
Yu Jiaxin，Chai Yuming，Rong Wanjing，Jing Nannan
Abstract：With the continuous acceleration of social economization and urbanization， urban traffic problems have become increasingly prominent， and the number of urban motor vehicles has increased sharply， resulting in a series of traffic problems such as road congestion and atmospheric pollution. This paper first uses the multiple regression model to measure the factors that affect the number of motor vehicles in Shenyang， and then uses the GM（1，1）model to predict the value of the number of vehicles in Shenyang in the next 5 years， and predicts the 2016-2020 motor vehicle ownership of Shenyang through stepwise regression analysis.
Key words：vehicle ownership， traffic environmental carrying capacity， traffic environmental pollution carrying capacity
关键词：机动车保有量 交通环境承载力 交通环境污染承载力
Measurement and Calculation of Motor Vehicle Ownership in Shenyang based on GM （1，1）Model
Yu Jiaxin，Chai Yuming，Rong Wanjing，Jing Nannan
Abstract：With the continuous acceleration of social economization and urbanization， urban traffic problems have become increasingly prominent， and the number of urban motor vehicles has increased sharply， resulting in a series of traffic problems such as road congestion and atmospheric pollution. This paper first uses the multiple regression model to measure the factors that affect the number of motor vehicles in Shenyang， and then uses the GM（1，1）model to predict the value of the number of vehicles in Shenyang in the next 5 years， and predicts the 2016-2020 motor vehicle ownership of Shenyang through stepwise regression analysis.
Key words：vehicle ownership， traffic environmental carrying capacity， traffic environmental pollution carrying capacity