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与发达国家相比,我国煤矿物流系统安全生产水平仍然比较落后,安全问题严重影响到煤矿的生产效率。基于1995-2011年我国煤炭安全事故与生产效率相关数据,对安全与生产效率进行界定并量化后,运用ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和VECM对煤矿物流系统安全与生产效率的关系进行了研究。通过研究发现:在长期均衡下,煤炭物流系统属于安全依赖型系统;在短期内,生产效率自身存在潜在的滞后期影响,而安全投入则可以采取分步骤、分时期的政策应对安全对生产效率的短期波动影响。
Compared with developed countries, China’s coal mine logistics system safety production level is still relatively backward, safety problems seriously affect the coal production efficiency. Based on the data of coal accident and production efficiency in China from 1995 to 2011, the safety and production efficiency were defined and quantified. After ADF test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and VECM, the safety and production efficiency of coal mine logistics system The relationship was studied. Through the study, it is found that under the long-term equilibrium, the coal logistics system belongs to the safety-dependent system. In the short run, the production efficiency itself has the potential lag effect, while the safety investment can take the step-by-step and sub-period policies to deal with the safety to production efficiency Short-term fluctuations.