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目的评估2015年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计5月全国总报告事件数和病例数较4月将有所增加。随着气温的逐渐上升,登革热、手足口病、布鲁氏菌病流行强度会逐渐增强,受优势病原的变化及异常气象条件影响,部分省份可能会出现病例异常增多或重症、死亡病例增多现象。近期我国内地仍将发生人感染H7N9散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感可能有散发病例报告。埃博拉出血热、中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性均极低。结论预计2015年5月全国总报告事件数和病例数较4月将有所增加;需重点关注登革热、手足口病、布鲁氏菌病、埃博拉出血热、人感染H7N9禽流感、中东呼吸综合征对我国的影响。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in May 2015 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results Based on the recent monitoring data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the analysis of past epidemic characteristics, the number of nationally reported incidents and cases in May was expected to increase from April. With the gradual increase of temperature, the epidemic intensity of dengue fever, hand-foot-mouth disease and brucellosis will gradually increase. Influenced by the change of dominant pathogens and abnormal meteorological conditions, some provinces may experience abnormal or severe cases and an increase of deaths . Recently, human cases of H7N9 infection will still occur in the Mainland of China. Other cases of bird flu that may infect humans may have been reported. Ebola haemorrhagic fever, Middle East respiratory syndrome, the risk of entering our country still exists, but the possibility of large-scale proliferation are extremely low. Conclusion It is estimated that the number of reported cases and the number of cases in China will increase in April 2015 compared with that in April. Dengue fever, hand-foot-mouth disease, brucellosis, Ebola haemorrhagic fever, human H7N9 bird flu, The impact of respiratory syndrome on our country.