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摘 要：為研究蒸发序列非一致性，增强水文频率计算的稳定性，以黄河流域典型三级区蒸发序列为研究对象，以GAMLSS模型为基础，选择黄河流域5个典型水资源三级区，引入时间t作为解释变量进行参数拟合，分析各三级区年、汛期、非汛期蒸发序列的非一致性特征。采用Kendall法进行趋势检验，Mann-Kendall法和5 a滑动T检验法进行突变检验。分析结果表明：①伊洛河、三门峡—小浪底区间、花园口以下干流区间的蒸发序列突变较为明显，大夏河与洮河、湟水蒸发序列的突变存在一定的差异;②5个三级区不同时间尺度的蒸发序列以Generalized Gamma为最优分布的最多，Logistics的最少;③5个三级区不同时间尺度的蒸发序列除部分序列外，均与时间t成负相关，大部分蒸发数据均包含在置信水平为5%和95%的置信区间内，表明不同时间尺度的蒸发序列的GAMLSS模型拟合效果较好;④5个三级区蒸发序列非一致性特征较为明显，以花园口以下干流区间年、非汛期蒸发序列的非一致性特征最为明显。
关键词：GAMLSS;非一致性;蒸发序列;三级区;黄河流域
中图分类号：P333;TV882.1 文献标志码：A
doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.08.004
引用格式：张彩玲，鲁帆，方文，等.黄河流域典型三级区蒸发序列非一致性分析[J].人民黄河，2021，43（8）：19-25.
Abstract： In order to study the inconsistency of evaporation series and increase the certainty of hydrological frequency calculation， this paper took the evaporation series of typical third-level regions in the Yellow River Basin as the research object. Based on the GAMLSS model， it selected five typical water resources third-level regions in the Yellow River Basin， introduced the time t as an explanatory variable to fit the parameters， and analyzed the non-uniform characteristics of the evaporating sequences in the three-stage regions of the year， flood season and non-flood period. The Kendall method was used for trend test and the mutation test was performed by using Mann-kendall and 5-year sliding T method. The results show that： a） the evaporation sequence of the Yiluo River， Sanmenxia-Xiaolangdi reach and the main stream below the Huayuankou is more obvious and the mutations of evaporation sequence of Daxia， Taohe and Huangshui Rivers are different; b） the evaporation sequence at different time scales in the third-level region is the most optimal distribution with the most Generalized Gamma， and the Logistics is the least; c） the evaporation sequence on the different time scales of the five tertiary regions is negatively correlated with the time t except for some sequences. Most of the evaporation data are included in the confidence interval of 5% and 95% confidence level， indicating that the GAMLSS model of the evaporation sequence on different time scales has a better fitting effect; d） the five third-level evaporation sequences are not consistent. The sexual characteristics are more obvious. The non-uniform characteristics of the annual and non-flood season evaporation sequences in the main stream below the Huayuankou are the most obvious.
Key words： GAMLSS; non-stationary; evaporation sequence; tertiary zone; Yellow River Basin
关键词：GAMLSS;非一致性;蒸发序列;三级区;黄河流域
中图分类号：P333;TV882.1 文献标志码：A
doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.08.004
引用格式：张彩玲，鲁帆，方文，等.黄河流域典型三级区蒸发序列非一致性分析[J].人民黄河，2021，43（8）：19-25.
Abstract： In order to study the inconsistency of evaporation series and increase the certainty of hydrological frequency calculation， this paper took the evaporation series of typical third-level regions in the Yellow River Basin as the research object. Based on the GAMLSS model， it selected five typical water resources third-level regions in the Yellow River Basin， introduced the time t as an explanatory variable to fit the parameters， and analyzed the non-uniform characteristics of the evaporating sequences in the three-stage regions of the year， flood season and non-flood period. The Kendall method was used for trend test and the mutation test was performed by using Mann-kendall and 5-year sliding T method. The results show that： a） the evaporation sequence of the Yiluo River， Sanmenxia-Xiaolangdi reach and the main stream below the Huayuankou is more obvious and the mutations of evaporation sequence of Daxia， Taohe and Huangshui Rivers are different; b） the evaporation sequence at different time scales in the third-level region is the most optimal distribution with the most Generalized Gamma， and the Logistics is the least; c） the evaporation sequence on the different time scales of the five tertiary regions is negatively correlated with the time t except for some sequences. Most of the evaporation data are included in the confidence interval of 5% and 95% confidence level， indicating that the GAMLSS model of the evaporation sequence on different time scales has a better fitting effect; d） the five third-level evaporation sequences are not consistent. The sexual characteristics are more obvious. The non-uniform characteristics of the annual and non-flood season evaporation sequences in the main stream below the Huayuankou are the most obvious.
Key words： GAMLSS; non-stationary; evaporation sequence; tertiary zone; Yellow River Basin