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基于近代中国1776~1953年间6个时点的省、府两级人口和州府经纬度数据,通过混合回归、面板回归和空间面板回归,我们发现:人口密度越高的地区,人口增长率越低,且该模式在战乱时期比和平时期更显著;和平时期邻近地区的人口密度对本地区人口增长率有正向影响,战乱时期则有负向影响。我们认为在和平时期,导致高人口密度地区出现低人口增长的高死亡率和高净人口迁出率,很可能源自这类地区有着较低的人均收入。而战乱时期的模式,还可能源于高人口密度地区居民更为积极地参与战乱,这同样源于这类地区有着较低的人均收入。故而,人口密度与人口增长率之间的实证结果,可作为工业化之前近代中国经济发达地区的居民收入水平更低的证据。
Based on the latitude and longitude data of the population at the provincial and prefectural levels and the state governments at six time points between 1776 and 1953 in modern China, we found that the population growth rate is lower in areas with higher population density through mixed regression, panel regression and spatial panel regression , And the model was more significant in times of war than in peacetime. In the peacetime, the population density in the neighboring areas had a positive impact on the population growth rate in the region while it had a negative impact in the war years. In our opinion, during the peace period, the high death toll and the high net migration of the population with low population growth in areas with high population density are most likely due to the low per capita income in these areas. In the war-torn model, however, residents in high-density areas may also be more actively involved in the war. This is also due to the fact that such areas have lower per capita incomes. Therefore, the empirical result between population density and population growth rate can be used as evidence of a lower income level of residents in economically developed areas in modern China before industrialization.