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目的探讨南昌市1998-2007年霍乱、甲肝、菌痢、肾综合征出血热、乙脑和狂犬病等疾病的发病季节性规律。方法应用集中度分析方法探讨疾病的季节性,应用圆形分布法分析疾病发生的高峰时间分布。结果霍乱有严格的季节性,乙脑有很强的季节性,菌痢和狂犬病有一定的季节性,甲肝和出血热的季节性较差;以上疾病均存在高峰发病日;其中霍乱高峰发病月日是8月3日,乙脑为7月8日,95%可信时区分别为6月12日～8月24日和4月24日～9月21日。结论在疾病的高峰发病时间段,应加强卫生宣传和疾病监测,预防疾病发生。
Objective To investigate the seasonal patterns of cholera, hepatitis A, bacillary dysentery, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Japanese encephalitis and rabies in Nanchang from 1998 to 2007. Methods Concentration analysis method was used to explore the seasonality of the disease. The circular distribution method was used to analyze the peak time distribution of the disease. Results Cholera was strictly seasonal. JE had a strong seasonal distribution. Bacillary dysentery and rabies were seasonal. Hepatitis A and hemorrhagic fever were less seasonal. All the above diseases had peak onset date. Cholera peak onset month Day is August 3, JE for July 8, 95% confidence time zone were June 12 to August 24 and April 24 to September 21. Conclusion During the peak period of the disease, publicity and disease monitoring should be strengthened to prevent the disease from happening.