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[目的]探讨九江鄱阳湖区棉蚜发生规律与预报方法,以丰富该地区棉蚜预报技术。[方法]采用对比分析、相关分析和小波分析方法分析了江西省彭泽县近28年来棉蚜的发生规律性及影响因子,通过逐步回归方法建立了棉蚜发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式,并在鄱阳湖北部棉区开展了预报试验。[结果]小波分析表明:近28年来,鄱阳湖北部棉花伏蚜发生等级存在4年主振荡周期,而棉花苗蚜发生等级周期性振荡不明显。对比分析与相关分析表明:棉花蚜虫的发生为害与冬季气候背景及中短期气象条件存在显著相关性。预报试验表明:利用单站要素研制的棉花蚜虫发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式在气候相似区推广应用的信度是可靠的。[结论]为有效开展棉区棉蚜防治工作提供了理论依据。
[Objective] The research aimed to discuss the regularity and forecast method of cotton aphid in Poyang Lake area in Jiujiang to enrich cotton aphid forecasting technology in this area. [Method] The occurrence regularity and influencing factors of cotton aphid in Pengze County, Jiangxi Province were analyzed by comparative analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis method. The level long-term prediction model of cotton aphid was established by stepwise regression and the short- Condition suitability prediction model, and in the northern part of Poyang Lake cotton forecast test. [Result] Wavelet analysis showed that in the past 28 years, there was a 4-year main oscillation period in the order of occurrence of cotton aphid in northern Poyang Lake, while the grade periodic oscillation of cotton seedling aphid was insignificant. The comparative analysis and correlation analysis showed that there was a significant correlation between the occurrence of cotton aphids and the winter climate background and short-term meteorological conditions. The forecast test shows that the reliability of using the single-station element to develop the long-term forecasting model of cotton aphids and the mode of forecasting the meteorological conditions in the short-term and medium-term weather conditions is reliable. [Conclusion] This provided a theoretical basis for effectively preventing and controlling cotton aphid in cotton area.