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本文基于多尺度和多机制分析框架,采用探索性空间数据分析、马尔科夫链和多层次回归等模型方法,分析了近20年来浙江省经济差异的时空动态及其动力机制。结果表明:1浙江省经济差异与地理尺度密切相关,空间尺度越小,区域差异越大。2省域经济空间分布从东北到西南大致呈富裕、发达、欠发达和贫困的格局;富裕与贫困类别有强稳定性,并有明显的连片扩张趋势;欠发达地区更可能遭遇“贫困陷阱”。3浙江省经济发展表现出显著的空间依赖和自我强化集聚特征。4省内经济差异对核心—边缘结构和时间层次较为敏感;全球化是其经济差异的主要驱动力;分权化是影响其核心—边缘结构的重要机制;市场化可缩小因外商投资导致的空间集聚。本文从演化的角度对新经济地理学的中心—外围理论作了实证分析,验证了其在中国的适用性,认为全球资本的地理和政策偏好会加剧区域经济差异。此外,城乡差异也是浙江省发展中不可忽视的重要因素。
Based on the multi-scale and multi-mechanism analysis framework, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics and dynamic mechanism of economic disparities in Zhejiang Province in the recent 20 years by exploratory spatial data analysis, Markov chain and multi-level regression. The results show that: 1 The economic difference in Zhejiang Province is closely related to the geographical scale. The smaller the spatial scale, the greater the regional differences. The economic spatial distribution of the two provinces shows a pattern of affluent, developed, underdeveloped and impoverished from the northeast to the southwest. The affluent and impoverished sectors have strong stability with obvious contiguous expansion trend. The less developed regions are more likely to suffer poverty trap". 3 Zhejiang’s economic development shows significant spatial dependence and self-reinforcing clustering characteristics. 4 Economic disparities in the provinces are sensitive to the core-periphery structure and time horizon; globalization is the main driving force for their economic disparities; decentralization is an important mechanism that affects their core-periphery structure; and marketization can reduce the risk caused by foreign investment Gather in space. This essay empirically analyzes the periphery theory of the new economic geography from the perspective of evolution and verifies its applicability in China. It holds that the geographical and policy preferences of global capital will aggravate regional economic differences. In addition, the difference between urban and rural areas is also an important factor that can not be ignored in the development of Zhejiang Province.