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在采用碳汇法计算新疆1957-2007能源足迹的基础上,利用STR IPAT模型,以人口数量、富裕度、能源强度、结构化指标和现代化指标为自变量,以能源足迹为因变量,应用岭回归方法拟合得到环境压力模型,结果表明:人口数量是近51 a新疆环境变化的主要驱动因子,富裕度的增长和城市化进程的加快对能源足迹的增长具有显著影响,而能源强度的降低和产业结构的优化对降低能源足迹,减轻环境压力具有重要作用;且富裕度和能源强度对能源足迹影响的时间差异显著。在观测数据范围内,分析结果不支持环境Kuznets曲线的论断。最后提出了控制人文因素对环境影响的相关建议和措施。
Based on the energy footprint of Xinjiang 1957-2007 calculated by carbon sink method and STR IPAT model, taking the population footprint, affluence, energy intensity, structural indicators and modernization indicators as independent variables and energy footprint as the dependent variable, The regression model was fitted to the environmental pressure model. The results show that the population is the main driver of environmental change in Xinjiang in the recent 51 years. The increase of wealth and the acceleration of urbanization have a significant impact on the growth of energy footprint while the decrease of energy intensity And the optimization of industrial structure play an important role in reducing energy footprint and reducing environmental pressure; and the time difference between richness and energy intensity on energy footprint is significant. Within the scope of the observed data, the analysis does not support the assertion of environmental Kuznets curves. Finally, some suggestions and measures to control the environmental impact of human factors are put forward.