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轨道交通系统发展迅速,其具有成本高、技术复杂和周期长的特点.研究轨道交通系统全生命周期成本,分析轨道交通系统性能、环境与安全强相关要素对全生命周期成本的敏感度,对轨道交通系统发展具有重要意义.文章建立了轨道交通系统全生命周期各个阶段的成本计算模型,计算了性能、环境与安全域强相关指标,构建了基于Elman神经网络的全生命周期成本预测模型,分析了各指标对轨道交通系统全生命周期成本的平均敏感度.利用有限数据进行建模分析,得到了10个安全域强相关要素,在基于安全域强相关指标下,发现决策设计-施工建设成本对环境域指标最为敏感.该研究对研究轨道交通系统成本优化具有参考意义.“,”The rail transit system has developed rapidly，and it has the characteristics of high cost，complicated technology and long cycle. Studying the life cycle cost of the rail transit system and analyzing the sensitivity of the rail transit system performance，environmental and safety related factors to the life cycle cost are of great significance to the development of the rail transit system. This paper established the cost calculation model of each stage of the life cycle of the rail transit system， calculated the performance，environment and safety domain strong correlation indicator，built a life cycle cost prediction model based on Elman neural network，and analyzed the average sensitivity of each indicator to the life cycle cost of the rail transit system. This paper used limited data for modeling and analysis，10 strong correlation factors in the safety domain are obtained. The decision-making design-construction cost is most sensitive to the environmental domain indicator based on the strong correlation indicator of the safety domain. The sensitivity analysis method proposed in this paper provides a clear method for the life cycle cost optimization of rail transit system，and has reference significance for studying the cost optimization of rail transit system.