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近年来,中国地震活动频繁且震害严重,给人民生命财产造成重大损失.地震能不能有效预测是目前困扰地震研究的科学难题,历史上也有成功利用形变监测资料预测地震案例.本文利用康定M_S6.3地震前区域精密水准和GPS观测资料,系统分析研究区域形变场变化与康定M_S6.3级地震发生之间的关系,以期为今后地震研究提供参考依据.文章所使用GPS观测数据首先利用GAMIT软件处理基准网观测数据,然后利用GLOBK软件进行综合平差计算处理,获取研究区地震发生前水平速度场图像;精密水准观测数据采用“拟稳点”法,对观测网数据进行计算处理,获取研究区震前垂直速度场图像.经过对获取结果的研究分析,得出以下结论:1)区域水平形变场变化与龙门山断裂带、鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映该区域在2009—2014年期间发生了引起形变场变化的构造活动或形变,与巴颜喀拉块体近E向滑移有直接的关系.2)区域垂直形变场显示地震发生在垂直梯度带正负变化交界附近,与海城地震和唐山地震相似.3)GPS和精密水准资料分析结果能有效反映孕震信息,建议未来5年重点监测鲜水河断裂带、龙门山断裂带西南段、安宁河断裂带和东昆仑断裂带中东段.
In recent years, China’s seismic activity has been frequent and severely damaged, which has caused heavy losses to people’s lives and property.If earthquakes can not be effectively predicted are the scientific problems plaguing the earthquake research at present, there are also some historical examples of using the deformation monitoring data to predict earthquakes.In this paper, Kangding M_S6 .3 Precise regional pre-earthquake leveling and GPS observations, systematically analyzing and studying the relationship between the regional deformation field changes and the occurrence of the Kangding M_S6.3 earthquake in order to provide a reference for future earthquakes. The GPS observations used in this paper are firstly GAMIT The software processes the datum net observation data, and then uses GLOBK software to carry out the integrated adjustment calculation to obtain the horizontal velocity field image before the earthquake in the study area. The precision leveling observation data uses the “quasi-stationary point” method to calculate the observation net data , And obtain the vertical velocity field image before the earthquake.After the research and analysis of the acquired results, the following conclusions are drawn: 1) The variation of the horizontal deformation field in the region is similar to that of Longmenshan fault zone, Xianshuihe fault zone and Anninghe fault zone Closely related to the tectonic activity that caused changes in the deformation field during the period 2009-2014 in the region or And it is directly related to the near E slip of the Bayan Har block.2) The vertical deformation field shows that the earthquakes occur near the junction of positive and negative vertical gradient, similar to the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes.3) GPS And the accurate leveling data analysis results can effectively reflect the seismogenic information. It is proposed that the Xianshuihe fault zone, the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, the Anninghe fault zone and the middle east segment of the East Kunlun fault zone be monitored in the next five years.