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人们从最近几十年来世界经济所经历的各种人口出生率和工业增长率出发,提出一个问题:在一个物质有限的星球上,这样的增长率能够持续多久?回答这个问题,有悲观的和乐观的不同答案。众所周知的悲观分析,就是米杜斯(Dennis L Meadows)和他的同事们在《增长有限度》一文中所提出的,他们详尽阐述了福莱斯特(Jay Forrester)所首创的方法,然后作出结论:“如果世界上的人口、工业化、污染、粮食生产以及资源消耗按现在的增长趋势继续不变的话,那么在今后的一百年内这个星球上的经济增长终有一天会达到极限。最有可能的结果是:在人口和工业生产能力这两方面都会发生突然而来的、不可控制的衰退。”这个结论是他们通过创立一种计算机般的模式而得到的,这个模式企图把那几个主要的变量,如
Starting from the various birth rates and industrial growth rates experienced by the world economy in recent decades, people ask the question: How long can such a rate of growth continue on a materially constrained planet? There is pessimism and optimism in answering this question Different answers. The well-known pessimistic analysis, as put forward by Dennis L Meadows and colleagues in his article “Growth Is Limited”, elaborates on the methods that Jay Forrester pioneered and then The conclusion: “If the world’s population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource consumption continue to grow at the same rate as they are now, the economic growth on this planet will one day reach the limit in the next 100 years. The likely result is a sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity. ”The conclusion is that they have come about by creating a computer-like model that attempts to reduce those few The main variables, such as