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国际收支平衡作为一个国家宏观经济政策的重要经济目标,自从美国次贷危机和欧洲债务危机以来正越来越受到国内外学者的关注。本文通过一阶差分广义矩估计模型和系统广义矩估计模型,利用动态面板数据,分析发展中国家经常账户失衡的决定因素。从实证结果可以看到发展中国家经常账户余额与贸易开放度、实际资本开放度和商品物价指数有着较显著的正相关关系。
As an important economic goal of a country’s macroeconomic policy, the international balance of payments is attracting more and more scholars’ attention both at home and abroad since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyzes the determinants of the current account imbalances in developing countries by using the first-order differential generalized moment estimation model and the system generalized moment estimation model, using dynamic panel data. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the current account balance of developing countries and the degree of trade openness, the actual degree of openness of capital and the commodity price index.