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[目的]探索河南省近十年来耕地质量演变规律及其主要驱动力。[方法]采用农用地分等因素法评价河南省2002年和2012年耕地质量及其变化规律;采用相关系数法筛选影响耕地质量演变的驱动因素。[结果](1)近十年来全省耕地质量总体上有小幅提升,空间上存在未变区、下降区、提升区3种区域,耕地质量演变在空间上显示出“好的更好,差的更差”的规律,这种演变趋势是未来耕地质量保护和管理应高度重视的一个问题;(2)土地开发整理项目等耕地质量建设工程对河南省耕地质量提升贡献显著(贡献率达60%);(3)突变区与缓变区耕地质量演变的驱动力存在显著差异。[结论]以耕地质量评价为基础,进行耕地质量演变及驱动力研究不仅具有重要的学术意义,而且可为管理者制定耕地质量提升措施和政策提供技术支撑,具有重大应用价值。
[Objective] The research aimed to explore the law of the evolvement of cultivated land quality and its main driving force in Henan Province in recent ten years. [Method] The method of farmland grading was used to evaluate the quality of cultivated land and its variation in Henan Province in 2002 and 2012. The factors affecting the quality of farmland were selected by correlation coefficient method. [Results] (1) The quality of arable land in the whole province has been slightly increased in the recent ten years. There are three kinds of areas in the area, including the unchanged area, the descending area and the ascending area. The evolution of arable land quality shows that "the quality is better, (2) The cultivated land quality construction project such as land development and consolidation project contributes significantly to the quality improvement of cultivated land in Henan Province (contribution rate Up to 60%). (3) There is a significant difference in the driving force of the cultivated land quality between the mutation area and the slowly changing area. [Conclusion] The research on the quality evolvement and driving force of arable land based on the evaluation of arable land quality not only has important academic significance, but also has great application value for the managers to provide technical support for formulating the measures and policies for arable land quality improvement.