论文部分内容阅读
今年年初以来,大宗商品市场的价格变动异常剧烈,一改持续下跌的熊市风格,能源原材料价格出现了较大幅度上涨。由于大宗商品价格变化的国际性和不可操纵性,其价格走势应该是实体经济的晴雨表。根据我们多年的实证分析研究,大宗商品价格走势是一个前瞻性的市场信号,向我们揭示:世界经济筑底的概率不断首先,实证研究表明:本世纪以来,大宗商品价格指数波动与全球经济增长状况总体保持一致性。我们通过应用相关计量经济学的方法,进行了长时
Since the beginning of this year, the price changes in commodity markets have been exceptionally violent. As a result of the falling bear market style, the prices of energy and raw materials have risen sharply. Due to the international and unprivileged nature of commodity price changes, the price trend should be a barometer of the real economy. According to our many years of empirical analysis, the trend of commodity prices is a forward-looking market signal, revealing to us that there is a constant probability of building a global economy. First, empirical studies show that since the beginning of this century, fluctuations in the commodity price index and global economic growth Overall consistency of the situation. We did this for a long time by applying the relevant econometrics approach