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近年来,我国的人口红利在逐渐下降,随着最低工资的出台,中国劳动力成本的快速上升更是对中国的出口竞争力提出了挑战。本文从衡量一国贸易分工和出口竞争力的出口复杂度着手,利用2000—2009年283个地级市的出口数据和最低工资数据,考察了城市最低工资变动对其不同组织模式出口复杂度的影响。在用工具变量法和系统广义矩法控制可能的内生性问题后,本文发现城市水平的出口复杂度主要是由加工贸易企业和外资企业推动,最低工资的提高并没有降低城市的出口复杂度,反而通过提高企业生产率进而促进整体出口复杂度的提高。而且,最低工资对城市不同组织模式下的出口复杂度影响不同,最低工资上涨会显著提高内资企业和一般贸易的出口复杂度,特别是内资加工贸易企业,但是对外资企业和加工贸易的影响不明显。我们认为,最低工资虽然在短期内会提高劳动力成本,然而从长远来看,最低工资会对内资和一般贸易企业产生倒逼作用促使其创新,有利于经济转型。
In recent years, the demographic dividend of China has been gradually declining. With the introduction of the minimum wage, the rapid rise of labor cost in China poses a challenge to China’s export competitiveness. This paper starts from measuring the export complexity of a country’s trade division and export competitiveness by using the export data and the minimum wage data of 283 prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2009 and examines the export complexities of urban minimum wage to its different organizational models influences. After controlling for possible endogeneity problems with the tool-based variable method and the system generalized moment method, this paper finds that the export complexity at city level is mainly promoted by processing trade enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. The increase of the minimum wage does not reduce the export complexity of cities, Instead, it will promote the improvement of overall export complexity by raising the productivity of enterprises. Moreover, the minimum wage has a different impact on the export complexity under different organizational models in cities. The increase of the minimum wage will significantly increase the export complexity of domestic-funded enterprises and general trade, especially domestic-funded processing trade enterprises, but the impact on foreign-funded enterprises and processing trade is not obvious. In our view, although the minimum wage will raise the labor cost in the short term, in the long run, the minimum wage will have a counterproductive effect on the domestic capital and general trading enterprises, which will promote innovation and facilitate economic restructuring.