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目的探讨军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病的预测效果并分析新兵精神疾病的危险因素。方法采用军人精神疾病预测量表调查2007-2009年6.4万余名新兵,筛查出预测阳性的高危人群并进行随访,观察其在部队特定环境中的精神疾病总发病率和不同时段(1～6个月、7～12个月、12个月以上)发病率预测效果。将2007-2009年3年内新患精神疾病的新兵作为病例组,抽取同期健康新兵作为对照组进行配对分析,探讨精神疾病预测量表的预测敏感度与特异度,并采用χ2检验分析家族和既往史、成长经历、个性内向、应激源、心理防御不良、社会支持等6个因子与新兵精神疾病的关系。结果 64 356名新兵中有163例发生精神疾病;预测量表为阳性者421例,其中发生精神疾病156例。该量表预测的新兵精神疾病总发病率为37.1%,1～6个月、7～12个月、12个月以上新兵精神疾病预测发病率分别为24.0%、9.7%、3.6%。其精神疾病的预测敏感度为95.71%,特异度为87.73%。χ2检验显示,家族和既往史(OR=3.17,P<0.05)、个性内向(OR=4.42,P<0.05)、心理防御不良(OR=2.91,P<0.05)为新兵精神疾病的危险因素。结论军人精神疾病预测量表对新兵精神疾病具有较好的预测效果;家族和既往史、个性内向、心理防御不良为新兵精神疾病的危险因素,在新兵精神疾病筛查中应重点关注。
Objective To explore the predictive effect of servicemen’s mental illness prediction scale on recruits mental illness and to analyze the risk factors of recruits mental illness. Methods A total of 64,000 recruits from 2007 to 2009 were recruited from the Prediction of Mental Illness Scale of Military Forces. The high-risk population with positive predictive value was screened out and followed up. The total incidence of mental illness and the prevalence of mental illness in a specific environment were observed. 6 months, 7 to 12 months, more than 12 months) incidence forecast effect. The recruits who suffered from mental illness within the three years of 2007-2009 were selected as case group and the recruits of health recruits in the same period were used as the control group to analyze the predictive sensitivity and specificity of the mental illness prediction scale and the Chi-square test was used to analyze the family and past History, growth experience, personality introverted, stressors, poor psychological defense, social support and other six factors and recruits mental illness. Results Of 163 of the 64 356 recruits, mental illness occurred; 421 were predictive of positive results, of which 156 were mental disorders. The overall incidence of recruits mental illness predicted by this scale was 37.1%. The predicted incidence rates of mental illness of recruits aged 12 to 12 months and 1-6 months were 24.0%, 9.7% and 3.6% respectively. The predictive sensitivity of mental illness was 95.71% and the specificity was 87.73%. Chi-square test showed that family history and past history (OR = 3.17, P <0.05), personality introverted (OR = 4.42, P <0.05) and poor psychological defense (OR = 2.91, P <0.05) were risk factors for recruits mental illness. Conclusion The mental illness prediction scale of soldiers has a good predictive effect on recruits mental illness; family and past history, introverted personality and poor psychological defense are the risk factors of recruits mental illness, and should be paid more attention in the screening of mental illness of recruits.