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根据梅溪水库面板堆石坝施工期和水库蓄水初期坝体的原型观测资料，对坝体应力变形分析所用的坝料计算参数进行了反馈分析，得出了坝体堆石料及坝基覆盖层的弹塑性应力变形计算参数。从统计模型的角度出发，研究了坝体变形长期预报模型，建立了考虑填筑分量和时效耦合作用的预报模型。
According to the prototype observation data of the dam body during the construction of Meixi Reservoir Face Rockfill Dam and the early stage of reservoir impoundment, the dam parameters calculated by the stress and deformation analysis of the dam are fed back, and the rockfill materials and dam foundation cover Elastic-plastic stress-strain calculation parameters. From the perspective of statistical model, the long-term forecasting model of dam deformation is studied, and a forecasting model considering the filling component and time-dependent coupling effect is established.