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布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后,美国长期处于贸易逆差和国际资本净流入中心地位,即美国外部失衡模式。在分析国际消费风险分担机制及影响因素的基础上,探讨美国在全球经济失衡中的消费风险分担利益,并利用美国与失衡伙伴的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,美国的跨国消费风险分担程度与其外部失衡相一致:在20世纪80年代的发达国家内部失衡格局中,美国从日本、德国等其他OECD国家获得了消费风险分担的好处;起始于20世纪90年代的本轮全球经济失衡中,中国等亚太地区新兴市场和发展中国家成为美国消费风险的主要分担者。
After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the United States has long been at a center of trade deficits and a net inflow of international capital, namely, the U.S. external imbalance model. Based on the analysis of the mechanism and influencing factors of international consumer risk sharing, this paper explores the shared interests of consumer risk in the global imbalances in the United States and uses the data of the United States and the unbalanced partners for empirical analysis. The results show that the share of cross-border consumer risk in the United States is consistent with its external imbalance: In the internal imbalances of developed countries in the 1980s, the United States gained the benefits of consumer risk sharing from other OECD countries such as Japan and Germany; In the current round of global economic imbalance in the 1990s, emerging markets and developing countries in the Asia Pacific region such as China have become the major contributors to consumer risk in the United States.