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近年来世界经济的持续低迷,使得主要发达经济体的对外经济政策出现了“反全球化”倾向,并得到了基本不掌握资本要素、收入主要来自劳动所得、在经济危机中福利不断恶化的低技能劳动者的支持。通过分析总结20多年来世界主要发达经济体劳动收入份额演进的趋势和内在机理,发现发达经济体内部的技术进步严重偏向资本和高技能劳动者,这才是引起低技能劳动者福利恶化更直接的“内部原因”。全球化虽然也会导致部分低技能劳动者的工作机会转移到新兴经济体,但这只不过是间接而非根本性的影响。对发达经济体低技能劳动者来说,“反全球化”在短期内可能会给其带来一定的就业机会增加,但也会导致其生活成本的迅速上升;长期来看,“反全球化”不仅无益于改善其福利,反而会刺激发达经济体的技术进步更加偏向资本和高技能劳动者,加速低技能劳动者的福利恶化进程。
In recent years, sustained world economic downturn, making foreign economic policy in major developed economies appeared “anti-globalization ” tendency, and do not have the capital to get the basic elements of income mainly from labor income, the economic crisis worsening welfare Low-skilled worker’s support. By analyzing and summarizing the trend and inherent mechanism of the evolution of labor income share in the world’s major developed economies in more than two decades, it is found that the technological progress within developed economies is seriously biased towards capital and highly skilled workers, which is more direct cause of the deterioration of welfare for low-skilled workers “Internal reason ”. Although globalization may also lead to the transfer of job opportunities for some unskilled workers to emerging economies, this is but an indirect but not fundamental effect. For low-skilled workers in developed economies, “anti-globalization ” may bring some employment opportunities to increase in the short term, but it will also lead to a rapid increase in the cost of living. In the long run, “ Anti-globalization ”is not only not conducive to improving its welfare, but will stimulate technological progress in developed economies to favor capital and highly-skilled workers and accelerate the deterioration of the welfare of low-skilled workers.