商品货币走强能否持续

• 机 构: 福汇研究分析部,
• 出 处: 中国外汇
• 发表日期: 2016年08期
• 关键词: 商品货币 美联储 茫然不知所措 欧央行 商品价格 导火索 市场行情 空头回补 净多头头寸 中性

美联储和市场都处于茫然不知所措的状态,FOMC在加息和维持中性(或再宽松)之间徘徊,投资者则在等待美联储做出抉择。2016年一季度,外汇市场行情令人难以捉摸:随着美联储拉开紧缩周期的帷幕,美元转为走弱;日央行史无前例地推出负利率政策,却成为日元走强的导火索;欧央行大幅加码QE,而欧元却在扩大反弹的空间;新兴经济体和大宗商品价格总体维持疲软,商品货币

Both the Fed and the market are at a loss. FOMC is hovering between rate hikes and neutral (or easing) as investors wait for the Fed to make a decision. In the first quarter of 2016, the foreign exchange market was elusive: as the Federal Reserve opened the tightening cycle, the dollar turned weaker; the Bank of Japan launched an unprecedented negative interest rate policy but became the catalyst for a stronger yen; Plus QE, while the euro is expanding the space for rebound; emerging economies and commodity prices remained weak overall, commodity currencies