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对船舶交通流的研究一般都采用仿真的方法,在船舶交通流的建模和仿真过程中,关键的问题之一就是要按照一定的规律生成船舶。船舶交通流特性服从随机分布,采用Monte-Carlo方法对长江武汉桥区交通流的历史数据进行分析,获取船舶类型、船舶尺寸、船到达规律、船舶间时距和船舶到达速度等概率分布规律,并根据这些分布规律提出了仿真中船舶的生成方法,用C++编程语言实现了仿真船舶的生成,经验证表明:仿真生成的船舶在数量上的相对误差接近10%,船舶长度、船舶间时距和到达速度等随机变量的均值和方差与实际的数据无显著差异,说明这种生成仿真船舶的方法是有效的。
The research of ship traffic flow generally adopts the method of simulation. One of the key problems in the modeling and simulation of the ship traffic flow is to generate the ship according to a certain rule. The characteristics of traffic flow of ships are subject to random distribution. The Monte-Carlo method is used to analyze the historical data of traffic flow in the bridge area of the Yangtze River in Wuhan. The probability distribution law of ship type, ship size, ship arrival rule, ship- According to these distribution laws, the method of generating ship in simulation is put forward. The generation of simulated ship is realized by using C ++ programming language. The verification shows that the relative error of ship generated by simulation is close to 10%, the length of ship, And the arrival rate of random variables such as mean and variance with the actual data no significant difference, indicating that this method of generating simulation ship is effective.